--
PODs to Activate
--
High Confidence
--
Parishes
Confidence Level
High (≥75%)
Medium (50-74%)
Low (<50%)
Actually Activated

Compare Scenarios

Side-by-side comparison of PODCAST prediction vs actual activations

127
PODCAST Predicted
112
Actually Activated
107
Correct Predictions
89.5%
F1 Score

PODCAST Prediction

Total Recommended 127 PODs
High Confidence 89 PODs
Parishes Covered 18
East of Track 82 PODs
West of Track 45 PODs
VS

Actual Ida Activations

Total Activated 112 PODs
Correctly Predicted 107 PODs
Parishes Affected 16
East of Track 77 PODs
West of Track 35 PODs

Prediction Accuracy Breakdown

Precision (avoiding false positives) 84.3%
84.3%
Recall (catching all needed PODs) 95.5%
95.5%
What-If Scenario
High Confidence
Medium Confidence
Low Confidence
Original Track
Shifted Track

What-If Builder

Shift the storm track to see how POD recommendations change

🎯 Track Offset:
West East
0 km
127
PODs Affected
+0
Change
82
East of Track
45
West of Track

How It Works

Drag the slider to simulate how POD activation recommendations would change if the storm track shifted east or west.

  • Shift West (-): Track moves left, western PODs gain confidence
  • Shift East (+): Track moves right, eastern PODs gain confidence

Scenario Summary

High Confidence PODs 89
Medium Confidence 28
Low Confidence 10

Historical Analysis

Hurricane Ida activation patterns and lessons learned

89.5%
East Side Activation Rate
18.5%
West Side Activation Rate
71%
East vs West Gap
75 km
Critical Distance Threshold

Key Finding #1: Side of Track Matters

PODs on the east (right) side of Ida's track had a 5x higher activation rate than those on the west side. This reflects the asymmetric nature of hurricane impacts, with stronger winds and surge on the right side of northward-moving storms.

Key Finding #2: Distance Thresholds

Activation rates were 95% within 25km of the track, dropping to 67% at 25-50km, and below 10% beyond 75km. The 75km threshold is critical for planning resource allocation.

Activation by Distance and Side

Distance East of Track West of Track Difference
0-25 km 100% 91% +9%
25-50 km 100% 24% +76%
50-75 km 88% 9% +79%
75-100 km 14% 0% +14%

Resource Optimizer

Prioritize POD activations based on confidence and estimated population served

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Priority 1 (Deploy Now)
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Priority 2 (Prepare)
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Priority 3 (Monitor)
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Est. Population Served

Priority Assignment Strategy (click to filter)

PODs are assigned priorities based on activation confidence and estimated population in the service area:

All Priorities

Show all PODs in the queue.

Priority 1

Confidence ≥75%. Deploy immediately.

Priority 2

Confidence 50-74%. Prepare for rapid deployment.

Priority 3

Confidence <50%. Monitor conditions.

POD Activation Queue by Priority

Priority POD Name Parish Confidence Distance Side

Resource Allocation Tip

With limited trucks and supplies, focus on Priority 1 PODs first. These locations have the highest likelihood of needing activation and typically serve larger populations. Use the confidence threshold slider to adjust how many PODs appear in each priority tier.

Export Options

Download the prioritized activation list for operational use: